李娟 | Juan Li｜李娟

When to pair surrogate species: A cost-scaling rule for conservation efficiency

Thu, 01 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

论文 / 2026

When to pair surrogate species: A cost-scaling rule for conservation efficiency

Kau, M., Xiao, L., Li, X., Liu, Y., Li, S., Zhang, L., Dou, Y., Jin, D., Lu, Z. & Li, J.^* Biological Conservation, 318, 111854. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2026.111854

阅读原文 doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2026.111854

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要点

Cost-scaling rule defines when pairing surrogate species is efficient.
Iconic flagships show diminishing marginal gains, limiting partner benefits.
Habitat and trophic complementarity drive large, dimension-specific gains.
Provides an efficiency threshold tool to support global biodiversity targets.

摘要

Conservation's US$700 billion annual funding shortfall demands efficient surrogate strategies, yet managers lack guidance on when a single champion species suffices versus when a complementary pair is needed. We present a general cost-scaling framework for surrogate portfolio selection and demonstrate it with 435 single- and two-species portfolios from 29 endemic mammals in China's Three-River-Source National Park. Using multi-criteria decision analysis, we integrated umbrella (habitat coverage), keystone (food-web centrality), and flagship (regional search interest) roles and quantified how habitat, trophic, and public-attention complementarity translated into incremental gains. By sweeping a coordination-cost exponent (α), which governs how costs scale with portfolio size, we identified the efficiency threshold (α*) beyond which the best singleton outperforms all pairs. Habitat complementarity increased umbrella coverage by a median of 41% and trophic complementarity boosted food-web centrality by 16%, whereas flagship gains showed diminishing returns when attention was already concentrated on a dominant species, with all pairings involving the dominant flagship adding ≤5% in this system. In this case study, α* ≈ 0.56, meaning pairs outperformed singletons only when managing two species cost ≤1.5 times managing one—a simple screening rule for this system: pair below α*, streamline above. This numerical threshold is specific to the TRSNP assemblage; the transferable contribution is the framework for deriving locally calibrated thresholds in other systems. The approach supports Target 4 (halting species extinctions and reducing extinction risk) and can inform spatial prioritization under Target 3 (conserving 30% of land, waters, and seas) of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

论文原文为英文，摘要保留英文原文。

姊妹篇

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Umbrella, keystone, or flagship? An integrated framework for identifying effective surrogate species

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 00:00:00 +0000

论文 / 2025

Umbrella, keystone, or flagship? An integrated framework for identifying effective surrogate species

Kau, M., Weckworth, B. V., Li, S., Pires, M. M., Jin, D., Pacifici, M., et al. & Li, J.^* Biological Conservation, 303, 111025. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111025

阅读原文 doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2025.111025

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要点

Developed a framework using MCDA and big data to identify surrogate species.
The framework quantifies and combines Umbrella, Keystone, and Flagship indices.
Data-driven method allows rapid, objective screening of surrogate species.
Snow leopard identified as the most effective surrogate in Three-River-Source National Park.

摘要

The global biodiversity crisis demands targeted conservation strategies that maximize impact despite limited resources. Surrogate species approaches, particularly using umbrella, keystone, and flagship species , offer practical targets for conservation planning that may indirectly benefit ecosystems. However, selecting target species is often hindered by conceptual ambiguities and inconsistent methodologies. To address these challenges, we present an integrative framework that systematically identifies effective surrogate species through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) combined with big data. Our framework quantifies each species' conservation potential using three indices: an Umbrella index, a Keystone index, and a Flagship index. The Umbrella index assesses habitat overlap using Area of Habitat (AOH) data, the Keystone index is calculated through a network analysis of predator-prey relationships, and the Flagship index analyzes public interest via Google Trends and Baidu Index. These indices are integrated into a composite Effectiveness index using the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) model, with sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of species rankings. We applied this framework to Three-River-Source National Park in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our results identified the snow leopard ( Panthera uncia ) as the most effective surrogate species among mammals, ranking first in both the Flagship and Keystone indices, and tenth in the Umbrella index, leading to its top position in the composite Effectiveness index. This data-driven, transparent approach enhances objectivity in surrogate species selection, promising more strategic and impactful biodiversity conservation efforts worldwide.

论文原文为英文，摘要保留英文原文。

姊妹篇

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